The Shift of Geopolitical Centrality away from Europe and towards Saudi Arabia
24/04/2025 - Written by Jamie Murphy
Introduction
Europe has experienced recent struggles with where to position themselves within the geopolitical sphere and how to define its relationship with the big players. In previous years, they could rely on the United States to provide security, Russia to provide energy, and China for markets and production. The new reality of the situation brings Europe closer and closer to depending on the US for all three areas. Since the beginning of 2025 there has been a progressive shake-up in US relations with Europe and the Middle East. President Donald Trump has provided a boost to the far-right movements sweeping across Europe that threaten to break apart the European Union, threatened tariffs on European goods, and has attended peace conferences with Russia in Riyadh without European cooperation.
As Donald Trump threatens to cut off military aid to Ukraine, European leaders are pursuing their own agenda: preparing for the day that US military assistance ends. Public opinion is shifting with European leaders’ agendas. Polls conducted in March 2025 showed that Donald Trump is regarded as a threat by 78% of British people, 74% of German people, and 69% of French people, and that in Germany the US’s reliability as a partner is down to 16%, while France’s reliability sits at 85% and the UK’s sits at 78%. As European leaders start to host their own conferences on Ukrainian defence and discuss common European debt and reducing reliance on American weaponry and LNG, we see signs of the transatlantic alliance becoming less relevant to leaders on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. This all works to weaken the geopolitical strength of European nations.
Contextual Analysis
Europe is currently suffering from a loss in industrial competitiveness in global markets compared to China and the US, and faces needing to increase defence spending to 3-5% of GDP in national economies to become more proactive in defence of Ukraine and the rest of the continent.
Often criticised for its bureaucracy and described by political scientists such as Ivan Krastev as “over-institutionalised and over-regulated”, populist movements continue to gain more influence as EU citizens grow increasingly concerned over European leaders’ capacity to address economic and security challenges. This could not only change the trajectory of European politics, but large shake-ups of the status quo in European politics could call the political cohesion of the continent into question. One recent development in European politics concerns the discussion of common defence policy. European leaders are set to hold regular summits regarding continental defence, without the input of their transatlantic allies.
As transatlantic cooperation is called into question, both the EU and the US have shifted their attention towards to Saudi Arabia. A positive effect that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had on the Kingdom is the scramble of Western nations for oil and natural gas, bringing in trade opportunities with both the EU and the US.
The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia has improved significantly since Trump took office. While previously Vienna, Oslo, Geneva and Paris have been the site of conflict mediation and peace agreements, the US-Russia summit was held in in Riyadh, given their geopolitical positioning between Russia, China and the US as well as their credibility for mediating the Lebanon Civil War.
In February 2025, right after the US-Russia summit in Riyadh, the Saudi Future Investment Initiative Priority event was held in Miami. In attendance were representatives of powerful American hedge funds such as BlackRock and Citadel, while Trump gave a speech detailing how Washington will seek to promote Saudi economic development, and Mohammad bin Salman pledging to invest $600 billion in the US.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (Left) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Right) shaking hands ahead of the Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, May 19 2023. Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/How-Saudi-Arabia-s-mediation-efforts-heap-pressure-on-Russia
Main Arguments
Europe holding a defence summit to pursue a continental agenda is not necessarily a sign of cohesion and progress. Invitations were extended to non-EU states such as Norway and the UK, both who will have their own agenda on how to handle national and European defence. Meanwhile, EU member states such as Austria and Ireland stand as neutral countries, while Hungary and Slovakia have repeatedly taken a pro-Russian stance on the War in Ukraine. These issues underpin the true effectiveness of the defence summit and highlight the EU’s well-earned reputation for indecisiveness and ineffectiveness.
Riyadh now appears to have an advantageous position to strengthen ties with both powers to the East and to the West. The pledges made by Trump and bin Salman at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative Priority event play into the Vision 2030 programme set out by the Crown Prince, who is aiming to diversify the Saudi economy with investments in technology, tourism and social reform aimed at modernising the economy.
When discussing the development of their relations with East and West, the argument can be made that perhaps these two superpowers are using them to make in-roads into what has traditionally been an American sphere of influence. However, when looking at how Saudi Arabia has used these relationships to help control oil prices and foster new political alliances to establish their own regional superiority, it can also be seen as the beginning of an establishment of a Saudi sphere of influence for future geopolitical and geoeconomic communications.
Key Players and Stakeholders
Saudi Arabia: With the help of China, Saudi Arabia has reestablished diplomatic relations with Iran. Not only has this helped to stabilise the region in general, but it brings an end to a long-standing rivalry whilst also taking advantage of Iran’s loss of an ally in Syria. Since the fall of Assad’s regime, Saudi Arabia has supported the new government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in order to foster a new, stable political environment in the region. As Saudi Arabia end rivalries and foster new governments in the Middle East, they work to establish geopolitical salience as a major power in the region while pursuing further trade with China and working with Russia to stabilise oil prices.
European Nations: Even as it appears that Saudi Arabia might be becoming the new epicentre of geopolitics, European nations may still benefit from working with the Kingdom. Mohammad bin Salman’s Vision 2030 programme could see Saudi Arabia transition away from pure reliance on oil and gas as well as work to improve the country’s education, healthcare, and housing. This makes cooperation with European nations ideal given their higher standards of housing and welfare as well as their emphasis on transitioning to green energy.
United States: After Israel, Saudi Arabia is the US’s second-largest trading partner in the Middle East and, after stale relations under the Biden Administration, it appears that Riyadh’s position in US foreign policy has been strengthened since Donald Trump took office. Investment pledges from the leaders of each country in speeches given in Miami in February 2025 could intertwine the American and Saudi economies over the next five years.
BRICS+: The BRICS nations stand to profit from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy and geopolitical salience. Saudi Arabia has shown that they favour South Africa over the EU as a trading partner to provide essential raw materials, and Russia stands to gain from Saudi Arabia’s assistance in stabilising oil markets. Meanwhile, China has become Saudi Arabia’s largest purchaser of crude oil while Saudi Arabia regularly imports consumer goods and machinery from China, as well as military equipment ever since the Biden Administration’s limited support and criticism of Saudi military intervention in Yemen.
Opportunities and Risks
Opportunities
Saudi Arabia could find itself uniquely positioned in the tension between China and the US. As President Trump expands his policy of imposing tariffs on many of the US’s most prominent trade partners, China has become the most recent target. The US initially imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese goods imported to their own borders, a figure which has since increased to over 200% depending on the goods. This comes at a time when China's economic growth has begun to show signs of exhaustion, and the sinking response from Wall Street stocks have stoked fears of recession in the US. This new tension could present an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to encourage further investment from both countries, while using their recent diplomatic experiences with both countries to facilitate the easing of economic disputes. This would bring further salience to their geopolitical centrality and ensure positive trade partnerships and diplomatic communication with the two largest economies in the world.
Pursuing continued ties with the US, the EU, and the BRICS nations will help bring Vision 2030 into fruition. Between their diplomatic ties, regional strength, influence over oil markets and commitment to economic development, Saudi Arabia can continue to use these various relationships to their advantage as they expand their education, technology and tourism sectors. This diversification of their economy will only serve to further expand their political and economic influence in the region.
Risks
Saudi leadership has sought out the new government in Iran’s old ally Syria. So far it appears that Iran does not wish to jeopardise their reinvigorated diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia by intervening. However, this could change; especially considering the ideological differences between Iran’s conservative Islamic government and Mohammad bin Salman’s desire to distance Saudi politics from traditional Islamic governance in favour of transforming the Kingdom’s economy and partnerships.
The UAE have also made attempts to establish themselves as the regional hub for technological innovation that could attract the same foreign investment as Saudi Arabia. This is seen through cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi which have seen large-scale western influence through expatriates, American brands and entertainment, and the availability of alcohol in public venues.
Saudi Arabia’s positive relations with the US could be affected by the lack of normal relations with Israel, the US’s biggest trading partner in the region. Saudi Arabia has long stood in solidarity with Palestine and, prior to the attacks of October 7, 2023, advocated for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Given Israel’s close ties to the US, President Trump’s recent proposal of a US takeover of Gaza, and Israel’s other conflicts in the region, Saudi Arabia may be caught between risking regional stability and jeopardising their renewed positive relations with the US. However, these conflicts may require a third party to mediate, a role that Riyadh has proven well-suited for.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at the G20 leaders summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina November 30, 2018. Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-princes-ukraine-mediation-signals-useful-russia-ties-analysts-2022-09-23/
Policy Recommendations
Saudi Arabia should pursue the opportunity to mediate further peace talks regarding Ukraine to bring further stability to the global oil market, and to receive international recognition for doing so. Mediation of Israel’s conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon may also be an avenue to pursue, given their close ties to Palestine and the US and previous experience mediating the Lebanon Civil War.
The EU must attempt a new trade agreement with the US, as the transatlantic partnership has long played a role in stability in the global economy. However, European nations should continue to pursue investment opportunities in Saudi Arabia in order to share in the profits to be made from the Vision 2030 strategy.
Conclusion
As nationalists and populists increase their foothold on European politics, and with Trump pursuing other avenues for resolving the Ukrainian conflict and opening the US for trade relations, geopolitical centrality is shifting. The EU, EEA and UK must stand together in pursuit of common debt policy and military support for Ukraine, while Saudi Arabia must prove themselves capable of successfully mediating something larger than regional conflicts while keeping hold of their strong position within the Middle East.
We should all keep a close watch in 2025 to see how geopolitical power manifests in Washington, Riyadh and Brussels and who proves more capable of resolving the Russo-Ukrainian War. The Saudi government must also consider the volatility of their position. The results of Vision 2030 are yet to be realised, and their geographical and political proximity to Israel’s conflict in Gaza could still impact their relations with countries such the US. Saudi Arabia must take steps to ensure continued progress with the US under the Trump Administration to achieve their economic goals, while avoiding any damage to their relations with the US’s biggest ally in the region.