Intelligence Briefings

The Kashmir Crisis and Security Fragmentation in Western Pakistan: IS-KP, TTP and Baloch Separatism

Published: June 12, 2025.

Executive Summary

• Escalating conflict with India in Kashmir has redirected critical military and intelligence resources from Pakistan’s western periphery, weakening counterinsurgency efforts. This security vacuum has created an opening for jihadist networks and ethno-nationalist insurgents operating along the Durand Line and in Balochistan to exploit the growing internal instability. 

• The Islamic State-Khorasan Province has displayed advanced operational adaptability in retaining its ideological relevance and funding. Its use of cyber-financing and multi-lingual propaganda has allowed the network to slowly build its operational capabilities.

• Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan remains one of the world's deadliest insurgent networks, while the Balochistan Liberation Army has intensified its activities. In recent years, Pakistan’s security services have warned of increasing strategic convergences between the two factions; however, an outright alliance remains improbable.

• Pakistan’s increasingly fragmented security apparatus risks ungoverned spaces being exploited by militant actors. While collaboration between these factions is unlikely, unilateral strikes with little formal coordination may prove to.

Beneath the Black flag: The Islamic State’s Resurgence in Syria

Published: April 16, 2025.

Executive Summary

• Conditions that once enabled the Islamic State to establish a territorial caliphate over the summer of 2014—including fragmented state control and security vacuums—have partially re-emerged in pockets of Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime in late 2024, creating fertile conditions for a renewed insurgency.

• While significantly weaker than during its peak, and operating through a more covert decentralised modus operandi, IS has diversified its economic portfolio, demonstrating operational and ideological resilience since the total collapse of its former proto-state in 2019.

• A fractured environment, poor operational structures, and lingering extremist sentiment in post-Assad Syria can easily facilitate the expansion of IS’ operational capacity.

• The United States’ isolationism under President Trump could serve to embolden IS, as Syrian forces struggle to quell the group as an American withdrawal is underway, leaving a power vacuum in its wake.

• Tensions between Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have diverted attention from counter-IS initiatives while placing immense strains on the SDF managing IS detention centres.

• The potential knock-on effect of an IS resurgence at a domestic level entails a great risk of a resurgence and reinstatement of IS at a global level, potentially catalysed by the lack of foresight of foreign powers.

• Regional opportunities for stability are presented through Kurdish-led forces, with the integration into a broader Syrian centralised armed force, fortifying efforts to combat IS whilst potentially providing a common objective that could stabilise the state.