Intelligence Briefings

Beneath the Black flag: The Islamic State’s Resurgence in Syria

Published: April 16, 2025.

Executive Summary

• Conditions that once enabled the Islamic State to establish a territorial caliphate over the summer of 2014—including fragmented state control and security vacuums—have partially re-emerged in pockets of Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime in late 2024, creating fertile conditions for a renewed insurgency.

• While significantly weaker than during its peak, and operating through a more covert decentralised modus operandi, IS has diversified its economic portfolio, demonstrating operational and ideological resilience since the total collapse of its former proto-state in 2019.

• A fractured environment, poor operational structures, and lingering extremist sentiment in post-Assad Syria can easily facilitate the expansion of IS’ operational capacity.

• The United States’ isolationism under President Trump could serve to embolden IS, as Syrian forces struggle to quell the group as an American withdrawal is underway, leaving a power vacuum in its wake.

• Tensions between Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have diverted attention from counter-IS initiatives while placing immense strains on the SDF managing IS detention centres.

• The potential knock-on effect of an IS resurgence at a domestic level entails a great risk of a resurgence and reinstatement of IS at a global level, potentially catalysed by the lack of foresight of foreign powers.

• Regional opportunities for stability are presented through Kurdish-led forces, with the integration into a broader Syrian centralised armed force, fortifying efforts to combat IS whilst potentially providing a common objective that could stabilise the state.