15 weeks of Executive Power: Prospects for Lebanon’s crisis recovery under President Joseph Aoun

April 29, 2025 - Written by Olivia Stott

Introduction

Joseph Aoun’s presidential inauguration early this year, marked a significant moment for Lebanon, after a two-year presidential vacuum, an ineffective political system, and conflict with Israel. At a Palm Sunday homily in February, the head of Lebanon’s Maronite church, Bechara Rai, expressed hope towards a turn in Lebanon’s leadership. The new Executive triad, represented by the President, Sunni Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, and Shia Speaker, Nabih Berri, have been perceived as advocates for reform, diplomacy and inclusivity, indicating an opportunity for political transformation and security in Lebanon.

Over the course of their leadership, the elected Executive Branch will be tested against their determination to recover the country from economic crises, bridge social and political sectarian divides, and gain territorial integrity amongst war between Hezbollah and Israel. This report will evaluate Aoun’s soft power and moderate leadership style in advancing the country’s overdue economic recovery and regional peace, after almost four months in power.

Contextual Analysis

Political Deadlock

Despite the signing of the 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended 15 years of brutal civil war, Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing political system has been plagued with deadlock and constitutional dysfunction. Envisioned presidential elections were abandoned in 2022. Political stalemate within the parliamentary voting system, left a presidential vacuum, leading to a delayed economic recovery from the country’s 2019 economic crisis, exacerbated by the Israel-Hezbollah war.

Economic Collapse and Humanitarian Crisis

Amongst the crises of economic collapse and continuous war, the Lebanese state has been regarded as highly corrupt. Historically, patronage networks amongst political parties reinforced a culture of power abuse. In 2020, it was reported that 41% of those accessing public services engaged in bribery. The government had unsuccessfully developed necessary reforms set by the International Monetary Fund in 2022, to attain a $500 million bailout, which would facilitate recovery from the 2019 economic crash. A culmination of economic constraints, including international sanctions on Hezbollah-governed regions, has led the Lebanese people to suffer increasingly from poverty, with unemployment rates reaching 29.6% in 2022.

Sovereignty Crisis

A key threat to the state’s territorial integrity is the operations of various non-state militant groups, including Palestinian factions, and the Shia Hezbollah’s armed wing. Designated as a terrorist group by countries such as the US, UK, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Hezbollah is known for its militancy towards Israel and US presence in the region. Hezbollah released a bombing campaign on Israel following the Hamas attack on Southern Israel on 7th October, triggering over a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah across Lebanon.

Presidential Promises

Joseph Aoun, elected president on January 9th, represents the Maronite Christian faction in Lebanon’s power-sharing constitution. His predecessor, Michel Aoun, prioritised alliance with Iran-backed Hezbollah, alarming governments that view Iranian influence as a destabilising force in the region. Favoured by both Washington and Riyadh, Aoun’s declared commitment to political neutrality signalled a continued dismantling of Iran’s proxy power in Lebanon. With a record of military achievements as Chief in Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), including neutralising ISIL in Lebanon with American funds in 2017, the new president has previously demonstrated strong military leadership and capacity for fostering international collaboration.

Echoing calls of the international community, in his inaugural speech, Aoun announced the expectation of state monopoly over weapons, signalling a historic commitment to national security, and cessation of hostilities with Syria and Israel through the disarmament of groups such as Hezbollah.

When Israel exceeded the agreed deadline of withdrawing all troops from South Lebanon, Aoun endorsed diplomatic measures, urging the European Union to exert diplomatic pressure on Israel to uphold the peace treaty signed in November. Demonstrating novel government unity, Aoun, Salam and Berri issued a joint statement on 18th February, appealing to the UN Security Council to influence Israel’s ‘immediate withdrawal’ from Southern Lebanon.

After cities under Hezbollah governance were targeted by Israeli missiles in mid March, the LAF demonstrated military restraint, modelling Aoun’s pledge that Lebanon will not be drawn into another cycle of violence. The LAF’s de-escalatory measures, such as removing Israeli barricades, signal attempts to commit to the ceasefire terms, through monitoring volatile areas and cooperating with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Israeli Army maintain occupation at five locations in southern Lebanon despite the given deadline [Murat Usubali/Anadolu Agency]. Source: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250218-israel-withdraws-from-southern-lebanon-remains-in-5-border-posts/

Key Players and Stakeholders

USA, EU and Gulf States

The President has taken a proactive approach to his diplomatic duties; After setting the intention in his inaugural speech, Aoun prioritised the pursuit of military aid in his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia in early March. Riyadh will see strategic value in an alliance with Lebanon’s reform-minded government to weaken Hezbollah and Iranian influence in the region. Aoun and Salam may leverage these interests in exchange for military support and investment.

The 2022 Maritime Deal between Israel and Lebanon created the opportunity for the state to significantly grow its energy sector. Gas exploration initiatives off Lebanon’s coast began in 2023, after licenses were given to Total Energies, Eni and Qatar Energy. A robust commitment to gaining regional stability could incentivise French and Qatari companies to continue gas exploration to bolster Lebanon’s economic recovery.

Israel

Whilst the new leadership avoids direct confrontation with Israel, it is unlikely to become an ally to the state in the immediate future. The new Cabinet and president have repeatedly rejected US pressure to engage in a ‘normalisation’ process with Israel. In the past month, the US Middle East Convoy has expressed disappointment in the new Lebanese leadership for denying alliance avenues with Israel, warning of a block to reconstruction in Shia-governed areas. Normalisation for Lebanon’s regional neighbours, such as Jordan and Egypt, has brought about Western military aid, intelligence-sharing and trade opportunities, particularly in the energy sector. Amid a failed ceasefire, and continued IDF presence in Southern Lebanon, there are few indications that this leadership will secure economic recovery through partnership with Israel.

Syria

Lebanon’s ‘new era’ has coincided with new leadership in Syria, when the Assad regime was overthrown last December. The apparent reform-minded leadership of both countries have made efforts in recent months to end decades of tension. Established relations seem hopeful considering Aoun and Salam’s initiatives to meet with the new Syrian Prime Minister, Ahmed al Sharaa. This will create opportunities for future maritime demarcation negotiations, needed to continue offshore petroleum research. It could also facilitate coordinated security efforts between state forces to prevent illicit activity and smuggling on the border, as modelled by last week’s announced intelligence cooperation with Jordan. The LAF’s recent crackdown on the border involved the closure of illegal border crossings, arrests and the confiscation of illicit goods. Just as the US distributed a military package to the LAF to defeat ISIL in 2017, the army’s crackdown on smuggling will likely incentivise further investment from countries wanting to block Iranian supply chains.

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities:

Aoun’s transparency efforts show a willingness to meet conditions ascribed by the IMF back in 2022 for a $500m bailout. Along with other government officials, Aoun reported his assets and interests to the National Anti-Corruption Commission, a symbolic step in building legitimacy within the institution, which could influence the creation of economic reforms in the future.

Aoun demonstrates commitment to developing a cohesive and inclusive government, ushering a transformation from political stalemate and institutional dysfunction. In his inaugural speech he stated intention ‘to give a chance to everyone’ and ‘to have the right representation’. He gained the trust needed to secure votes from the ‘Shiite Duo’, by giving several assurances to the Shia representatives, including the distribution of state funds and aid to Hezbollah constituencies. These promises defused suspicion of what Shia parties believed to be an ‘American coup’ in parliament.

Bridging trust between divided sects follows a model of state-building which fosters cooperation and unity to establish stability and state legitimacy. Aoun’s consensus-building likely envisions a long-term strategy of disarming Hezbollah through diplomatic methods with the political branch. In the context of Hezbollah’s weakened influence in the past year, prospects of dialogue between the president and the group are heightened. Aoun recently announced his faith in cooperation and disarmament dialogue with Hezbollah, indicating a shift towards leveraging political channels to address security concerns.
Aoun commits to l ongstanding objectives of strengthening Lebanon’s underfunded forces through restoring trust in international investors. Amongst the new Trump administration’s cutting of international humanitarian aid, Lebanon was treated as an exception, being granted a $9 billion aid package. The securing of military assistance underscores the international community’s recognition of Aoun’s efforts to secure regional security and economic recovery.

Risks:

Hezbollah

Aoun’s prioritisation of conciliation and cooperation amongst divided parties within Parliament, signals a departure from Washington’s preference for excluding Hezbollah from government. Whilst the group's power was diminished by Israel’s assassination of senior leaders in 2024, Hezbollah remains entrenched in Lebanon’s political system, even amongst the new ‘reform-minded’ leadership. A central figure in Lebanon’s tripartite leadership, and the newly appointed Finance Minister, both belong to the Shia Amal Party, which is historically aligned with Hezbollah. This month, Aoun announced that Hezbollah fighters could join the state army if they show a willingness to integrate into the institution. Whilst characteristic of Aoun’s unifying agenda, enlisting Iran-backed militants into the state military risks undermining strategic partnerships which cultivate military funding, particularly from the US.

Economic Reform

The lack of state provisions to enforce disarmament poses risk to regional stability, particularly as security concerns have periodically triggered escalations with Israel. Emerging economic partners such as Saudi Arabia, are likely to seek assurances of regional security efforts, preventing attacks on Israel - a key strategic ally of the United States - and reducing Iranian influence in Lebanon. Lebanese politicians expressed concern that war with Israel could negatively impact economic-growth initiatives, suggesting that regional instability influenced the failed and discontinued natural gas investigations from Qatari and European companies in 2023. Thus, Aoun’s trust-building efforts with emerging partners could be jeopardised if the government fails to seize exclusive authority over arms.
Given that anti-corruption measures are central to IMF reform expectations, a critical question remains, whether Hezbollah’s parallel financial system will be addressed to uphold anti-corruption principles of transparency, accountability and integrity. This year, the U.S. expanded sanctions against Hezbollah’s Iran-backed financial network, highlighting illicit trading as a regional security concern for Washington and Riyadh. This directive reinforces pressure on the state to confront the issue as a prerequisite for rebuilding international trust. Uncertainty persists over the compatibility of Aoun’s unifying approach to Hezbollah, with tackling corruption and curbing sanctions on Lebanon.

Sovereignty

Despite Aoun’s pledge to do ‘whatever it takes’ for the functioning of government security forces, the LAF’s reactive and hesitant approach to national security threats risk undermining diplomatic efforts in securing military funding. Troop deployment reportedly experienced delays during border flashpoints with Syria, and in Southern Lebanon, where under the ceasefire agreement, the LAF was assigned to facilitate the withdrawal of Hezbollah and Israeli forces.
Upon Aoun’s commands to ‘investigate’ and ‘manage’ hostilities, the LAF successfully located Syrian nationals held hostage in Lebanese territory after conducting military raids. Soldiers also arrested perpetrators of the rocket attacks on an Israeli settlement last month, for which Hezbollah denied responsibility.
Despite these military accomplishments, the continuation of regional escalations caused by non-state actors and tribal clans, indicates a lack of pre-emptive military presence in critical areas. The state’s failure to prevent the resurgence of non-state militia, weakened its leverage when seeking American and French support to deter Israeli aggression following the termination of the ceasefire last month. Washington has criticised delays in the deployment of LAF troops and will likely continue to push for tougher, more proactive security measures on the Israeli border in return for continued military assistance.

Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Source: https://www.mei.edu/publications/leading-resilient-lebanese-armed-forces-through-crises-and-long-run

Conclusion

After 4-months of executive power, Aoun has adopted non-coercive measures towards internal and external threats to the country’s sovereignty and security. He has fostered unity within the triad leadership, and significantly, amongst historically divided political parties. Aoun’s soft power is characterised by modelling values of cooperation and inclusion which will likely cultivate the institutional trust needed to rebuild and re-establish state legitimacy.

Under Aoun’s presidency, the Lebanese Armed Forces have so-far demonstrated a determined stance on de-escalating hostilities and investigating cross-border attacks by non-state militias. However, the state’s ability to restore full territorial integrity will continue to be challenged by the consistent absence of a proactive defensive strategy- notably the deficit of intelligence capabilities and the lack of concrete disarmament mechanisms for militias like Hezbollah.

Despite these territorial challenges, Aoun’s proactive diplomacy, particularly efforts to strengthen regional relations, marks the opportunity for future military capacity-building and intelligence cooperation. Strengthening the state’s pre-emptive military capabilities should be accompanied by the digitalisation of intelligence, surveillance, and border security systems. If sustained through efficient funding and institutional integrity, these efforts could build the essential foundation for Lebanon’s long-term stability, energy sector development and economic growth.

15 weeks of Executive Power: Prospects for Lebanon’s crisis recovery under President Joseph Aoun

Introduction

Contextual Analysis

Key Players and Stakeholders

Opportunities & Risks

Conclusion