Peter Magyar's Challenge to Orbán's Foreign Policy and Hungary's Role in the European Union
May 02, 2025 - Written by Christian Naso
Introduction
In recent years, Hungary led by Viktor Orbán has been the protagonist of a foreign policy focused on vacillating trade-offs between the European Union, Russia and China. Hungary’s strategy of national sovereignty and hyper-pragmatism has helped push Budapest to the margins of the Euro-Atlantic axis, making it a controversial and unreliable player in the eyes of the EU and the last Biden administration. However, the political rise of Peter Magyar after the 2024 European elections as a realistic alternative to the longstanding Orbán government could mean a turning point for the future of Hungarian foreign policy, as well as for internal balances.
Orbán’s foreign policy: between lights and shadows
The foreign policy stance of Viktor Orbán’s government, which has remained unbroken since his party Fidesz won a landslide victory in the 2010 parliamentary elections, is considered to be one of the most pragmatic in contemporary Europe.
On the other side, Orbán's lavish spending on diplomatic trips, with significant expenditures for his travels, which often serve more personal than national interests. Examples include controversial visits and the protection of indicted individuals, indicating a foreign policy that prioritizes ideological alignment over strategic necessity. Overall, Orbán's diplomatic approach appears inconsistent with Hungary's economic interests, reflecting a trend of favoring ideological over logical partnerships.
Budapest’s strategic ambiguity between Moscow, Beijing and Washington
A clear sign of Hungary’s unique approach to international relations is the ambiguous nature of Viktor Orbán’s relationship with Russia. In recent years, dialogue between Budapest and Moscow has not only intensified but deepened, drawing Hungary closer to the Kremlin’s orbit and sparking tensions with Western allies. The Hungarian economy, particularly in the energy sector, is heavily reliant on Russian imports, with around 80% of its gas coming from Russia.
Hungary considers access to Russian energy supplies essential for its security, emphasizing that the issue is material and not political. While other European countries have diversified their energy sources, ensuring supplies without Russia, Hungary has chosen to maintain cooperation with Moscow, a decision that appears to be more political than claimed.
The personal rapport between Orbán and Putin is also evident in Hungary’s recurrent resistance to EU sanctions against Moscow. At the start of 2025, Orbán raised objections in the European Council to the renewal of sanctions, which required unanimous approval, threatening to use his veto. He made his support conditional on guarantees regarding the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, which had been suspended by Kyiv on January 1st, 2025. Only after reaching a compromise ensuring the transit of Azeri gas through Ukraine did Orbán, on January 27th, withdraw his veto and approve the sanctions, reaffirming a foreign policy strategy centered on protecting national interests in key sectors like energy.
Another factor in Orbán’s foreign policy is the tied relationship with China. The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Hungary in May 2024 marked a high point in the two countries’ strategic partnership, resulting in a series of economic and cultural agreements. This pivot towards the East traces back to 2012, when Hungary launched its “Eastern Opening” policy, aiming to escape the so-called “middle-income trap” and drive economic development. Relations with Beijing have brought Hungary increasing levels of investment and infrastructure projects, such as the modernisation of the Budapest-Belgrade railway, managed by a Sino-Hungarian joint venture. Furthermore, Hungary’s strong manufacturing sector makes it an effective hook for China’s economic ambitions in Europe: Chinese investments in the automotive sector particularly in the electric vehicle value chain are growing rapidly, with Hungary emerging as the top European recipient.
Regarding relations with the United States, Hungary holds realistic hopes for a “golden age” in bilateral ties under the new Trump presidency. The Hungarian government’s enthusiasm for Trump’s return to the White House stems not only from shared values, interests, and foreign policy visions but also from past experiences with Democratic administrations, which have often taken a more confrontational stance toward Budapest.
“Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, capital of China, July 8, 2024.” Source: https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202407/08/content_WS668b8d33c6d0868f4e8e8fcb.html
A Divided Europe
Viktor Orbán has repeatedly pushed back against efforts to increase military assistance to Ukraine or advance its bid for EU membership. Orbán tried to block proposals aimed at helping Europe step in and cover the shortfall caused by a halt in U.S. aid to Kyiv - highlighting the challenges of the EU’s unanimity rule, which requires all 27 member states to agree before a joint statement can be issued by the European Council.
Recently, a strategy emerged within the EU to bypass Hungary's objections by allowing 26 member states to agree on a joint statement, even if Hungary opts out. This approach was successfully used to address aid for Ukraine, with the statement issued as an annex representing the consensus of the majority. Diplomats indicated this tactic could become a regular practice, although future challenges might arise. Hungary's concerns are increasingly being disregarded in these discussions.
Hungary recently passed a controversial anti-LGBTQ+ constitutional law banning Pride events, allowing authorities to use facial recognition software to identify attendees and establish only two genders in the Hungarian constitution. This legislative move, supported by Orbán's Fidesz party, was approved in a swift vote, echoing similar repressive measures seen in Russia. Thousands protested in Budapest against the law, which amends existing assembly regulations and imposes fines for attending prohibited events.
The law is framed under the guise of "child protection" prohibiting the depiction of homosexuality in content for minors. In 2022, the European Union's executive commission filed a case against Hungary's 2021 child protection law, arguing that it discriminates against individuals based on their sexual orientation and gender identity. Nevertheless, the infringement procedure against Hungary is cumbersome and requires unanimity in the European Council to be approved.
A more recent reaction of the European Union to the ongoing challenges posed by Orbán is realized in Germany's incoming government, led by Friedrich Merz, which in regards of withholding European findings, the CDU/CSU intends to adopt a firm position against nations who transgress EU principles: analysts point out that Hungary, which is frequently seen as the EU's worst offender, is specifically targeted by these initiatives.
Furthermore, Orbán meets the Trumpian anti-European agenda, undermines the unity and effectiveness of the European Union from within and is constantly vetoing European decision-making processes. Opponents note that this strategy may serve to distract the electorate from pressing issues as elections approach in 2026, where Orbán’s absolutism seems unready to take a hit.
The new plan to get over Hungary's objections may be a short-term fix as the EU struggles with its particular problems, but it raises questions about long-term cohesion and unity. Orbán's strategies seem to be intended to strengthen his political position while eroding collective European principles in the run-up to the 2026 elections. This persistent conflict highlights a crucial moment for the EU, which must strike a careful balance between defending its values and controlling internal dissension.
“Hungarian PM Viktor Orban (R) looks on as EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen (C) speaks at a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, 09 October 2024.” Source: https://balkaninsight.com/2024/10/09/hungarian-pms-fiery-speech-at-eu-received-with-scorn/
Challenging the Status Quo: Magyar's Vision for Hungary's Future
Peter Magyar is a former member of the Fidesz party and now leader of the opposition party Tisza; His program opposes the alleged corruption of Orbán's government and aims to bring Hungary back to the heart of the European Union, claiming to be building a "spring" that opposes Orbán's long winter.
Magyar's rise began in the 2024 European elections, where Fidesz came in first, but Magyar's party achieved 30%, showing significant popular support. To date, opinion polls indicate that Magyar surpasses Orbán, prompting Orbán to declare that "a shadow army" is helping the opposition to subvert his elected government. He has promised transparency and democratic reforms, seeking to attract voters disillusioned by Orbán's management, which has faced criticism for its authoritarian approach and policies against minorities. His growing popularity represents a significant challenge to the current government and could influence future national elections.
Magyar aims to implement a referendum on Ukraine's potential EU membership, citing its divisive nature in Hungary. He argues that accessing the frozen EU funds could boost the economy by at least 1%, providing significant budgetary relief. He also emphasised Hungary's commitment to NATO and the EU, contrasting with Orbán's scepticism toward EU policies and military aid to Ukraine.
The political landscape indicates a potential shift as economic issues mount under Orbán's leadership, after two years of economic stagnation and emerging threats to Hungary's export-driven economy due to U.S. tariffs on EU imports; in 2023, Hungary's automotive industry exported 91% of its products abroad.
Data indicates that 71.7% of Hungary's exports were purchased the most by importers such as Germany (26% of the total), Italy (5.6%), Romania (5.5%), Slovakia (5%), Poland (4.6%), the Czech Republic (4.6%). From a broader perspective, 88.5% of Hungary's exports by value went to other European countries, while 5.8% were sold to Asian importers. Additionally, Hungary exported another 4% of goods to North America.
As a small economy, Hungary is highly sensitive to measures affecting the European Union, a situation compounded by its significant reliance on the German industry, which has recently faced considerable challenges. In this scenario, a change in leadership and direction of Hungary's foreign policy, led by the opposition against Orbán's hegemony, would represent a shift in the geopolitical balance of Eastern Europe.
Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities
The rise of opposition leader Peter Magyar and the increasing support in polls indicate a pivot away from Orbán's pragmatic line, with Magyar positioning himself as an alternative that could bring Hungary back to the heart of Brussels. This would allow for the unlocking of European funds and contribute to a common European narrative in economic, security, and diplomatic matters.
In this hypothetical scenario, the European Union could take advantage of the potential new leadership to prevent any Trojan horses in Eastern Europe, returning to harmonious dialogue with Hungary (as it has occurred with Poland) and consolidating its role as an international power in the contextual geopolitical landscape.
Risks
The current state of Hungarian domestic and foreign policy places the country in a position of isolation within the European axis, in a context where Orbán's veto power and manipulation of EU decision-making processes complicate collective action on key areas such as European rearmament and support for Ukraine.
Within the country, Orbán's political stance and the derogations of constitutional principles, such as those related to the rights of LGBTQ+ communities, represent a destabilizing factor that erodes the democratic principles which Hungary has always been a beacon compared to its Eastern European neighbors before Orbán's step change.
This isolation, exacerbated by sanctions and the blockage of European funds, represents an additional risk to the country's economic stability, as its reliance on Russian gas imports constitutes a significant element of economic vulnerability. Orbán recognises that the European Union is lacking resources and independent strength, claiming that Brussels has strategically distanced itself from Washington, and criticizing the EU's commitment to NATO expansion towards Russia as irresponsible.
Policy Recommendations
Under an hypothetical Peter Magyar's leadership, Hungary should focus on strengthening its relations with the European Union by reinstating dialogue and unlocking frozen EU funds while committing to energy diversification through renewable sources and alternative partnerships. Promoting democratic reforms is essential, and economically, the government should support innovation and small-to-medium enterprises to stimulate growth.
These actions aim to reposition Hungary as a constructive EU member while addressing internal challenges and the aftermath of Orban’s imperial and lasting power.
On the other hand, Europe now faces its greatest challenge since it was established. The continent's peace, prosperity, and fundamental values hinge on addressing its internal threats. The EU will be trapped between an ineffective confederation and the lofty aim of an "ever closer union" without decisive action. The suggested concurrent suspension strategy provides an answer and the legal mechanisms to deal with this crisis are already in place; Europe simply needs to utilize them and resolve to be up to the challenge.