The Strategic Expansion of Russia-North Korea Relations and its Security Implications

June 26, 2025 - Written by Noam Bizan

Introduction

On June 5, 2025, Kim Jong-Un vowed to “unconditionally” support Russia in its war against Ukraine. This declaration exemplifies the growing Russia-North Korea relationship since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While initially transactional and limited to military cooperation, Russia-North Korea relations have deepened and expanded into a strategic partnership, marked by frequent high-level diplomatic meetings, military and technological cooperation, energy security, and economic ties. This poses a serious threat to regional and global security, particularly in terms of nuclear proliferation and the international balance of powers. The US, Europe, and their East Asian allies should take these risks seriously and work together to counter them.

Historical background

Russia-North Korea relations go back to the early post-World War II years, when the Korean Peninsula was divided along the 38th parallel between the US and the Soviet Union. In 1948, the south became democratic under American supervision, while the north came under political control by the Soviet-backed communists. The Soviet Union provided military support to North Korea in the Korean War. In 1961, Nikita Khrushchev and Kim Il-Sung signed a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which included a mutual defence agreement. As the Cold War waned, Russian financial and military aid to North Korea slowed and Russia sought to improve its ties with South Korea. Russia ended the 1961 treaty in 1995. Putin reengaged with North Korea in the early 2000s, though Russia still saw North Korea as an “ambiguous and difficult” partner. In February 2022, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine catalysed a rapid expansion in Russia-North Korea ties. In June 2024, Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years, arriving to a personal welcome from Kim Jong-Un. Crucially, during this visit Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un agreed on a new mutual defence pact, the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

Evolution since the Ukraine war

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russia-North Korea relationship has evolved from a primarily transactional "marriage of convenience" into a deeper strategic alignment.

Russia's motivations are multifaceted:

Wartime necessity

Russia had, and still has, a serious shortage of conventional weapons and troops for use in Ukraine, both of which North Korea had to spare. Russia benefits from North Korean conventional weapons, especially artillery shells. As of April 2025, according to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has also sent 15,000 troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, with 4,700 casualties including 600 deaths.

Search for new partners

Russia risked economic isolation because of Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. Russia had to reorient itself to the East and Global South; North Korea emerged as the seemingly closest new partner. The 2024 Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership goes beyond mutual defence to trade, investment, science, technology, energy, food, opposition to sanctions, agriculture, education, health, and sports.

Labour supply

Russia has a severe labour shortage, particularly in its far east, due to deployments, emigration, and the low birth-rate. North Korean workers help alleviate this labour shortage in exchange for hard currency.

Political leverage

It is in no small part thanks to North Korean armaments that Russia is able to keep fighting in Ukraine. Russia’s ability to hold its ground gives Putin a stronger position from which to negotiate a peace agreement for Ukraine. This is particularly relevant since the inauguration of Donald Trump, who is willing to negotiate with Russia for an end to the war.

Geopolitical strategy

Russia and North Korea share an ideological opposition to the West, which at least rhetorically, is also shared by China. Russia’s growing closeness with North Korea pushes back on American interests in the Far East and undermines the Western sanctions regime on both countries.

North Korean troops in Ukraine supporting Russia’s war effort.

North Korea’s motives are also various:

Military modernisation

North Korea lacks the money, fuel, materials, and technology needed to upgrade its Soviet-era military—all of which Russia gives it in exchange for North Korean troops and conventional weapons. So far, Russia has given North Korea AI-powered attack drones, tanks with upgraded electronic warfare systems, a new naval destroyer with supersonic cruise missiles, a new air-defence system, and air-to-air missiles.

Combat experience

The Ukraine war gives the North Korean army a unique opportunity to gain real battle experience and insight into modern warfare, including drone use. This is the first time since the country’s founding that North Korean soldiers have fought in a foreign war on a significant scale.

Economic relief

The North Korean economy was debilitated by international sanctions, natural disasters, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia provides it with much-needed food, oil, and money.

Sanctions evasion

The Russia-North Korea alliance allows North Korea to evade sanctions imposed by the UN and other nations. Russia has overtly violated sanctions by accepting North Korean arms, releasing frozen North Korean assets, and allowing North Korean companies to open Russian bank accounts. Arms trade between Russia and North Korea has also weakened the non-proliferation regime.

Recognition and political leverage

North Korea seeks the support of Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Russia has given North Korea de facto recognition as a nuclear power, something which Kim Jong-Un has long desired and the West has long opposed. Moreover, the very threat of an improved North Korean military, particularly with a nuclear-powered submarine, gives North Korea leverage over the West.

Key players and stakeholders

Russia

Russia is actively seeking North Korean military aid for its war in Ukraine, in exchange for military technology and economic support. Putin has threatened to arm North Korea further if Western nations continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, risking the US-led security architecture in Northeast Asia. At the same time, Russia may be wary of forming a full-fledged alliance with North Korea, as this could undermine its relationship with China. Moreover, Moscow may be cautious of sharing too much sensitive information with North Korea, lest it become a competitor in the arms market or one day turn those weapons against Russia for their own strategic interests.

North Korea

North Korea has pledged 'unconditional support' for Russia in Ukraine, through which it hopes to continue receiving Russia’s material and technological support. Russia has also given North Korea recognition as a nuclear state and has helped it evade international sanctions. Russian assistance in developing missile systems and nuclear weapons capability increases the likelihood of the Kim regime’s long-term survival. At the same time, there are risks in North Korean soldiers fighting abroad, such as exposure to 'incorrect' ideas and defection. North Korean troops face challenges in Ukraine, including a lack of training in modern warfare and a language barrier.

China

Although Russia, North Korea, and China all share what is commonly referred to as an ‘anti-Western orientation’, Beijing is concerned about the reputational costs of an alliance with North Korea. The formation of a three-way axis appears unlikely, as there is little evidence of direct Chinese support for North Korean military aid to Russia. There is also mistrust in Sino-Russian relations. A Russia-North Korea military alliance poses a significant risk to China, which fears the emergence of an 'Asian NATO' with the US, Japan, and South Korea as a counterweight. Beijing also fears the regional destabilising effects of a nuclear North Korea with greater military capabilities. Still, there is potential for increased trade and transportation links between Russia, North Korea, and China, which would be beneficial to all parties involved.

South Korea

South Korea views the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea as a serious threat to the delicate balance of powers on the Korean Peninsula. The South Korean ambassador to the UN accused North Korea of using Ukraine as a “test site” for nuclear-capable missiles. Following the Russia-North Korea mutual defence treaty of June 2024, Putin told Seoul that there is “no need to be afraid” of Russia-North Korea defence cooperation as long as South Korea “does not plan aggression” against North Korea, an implicit threat to remain uninvolved; South Korea is currently providing only humanitarian support to Ukraine. Finally, the Russia-North Korea partnership risks undermining decades of ties between Russia and South Korea, including South Korean investment in the Russian far east and the Arctic.

United States and allies

The growing Russia-North Korea partnership represents a serious threat to the security of the US and its allies. Russia is helping North Korea improve its military, weakening international non-proliferation norms. Russia also enables North Korea to evade sanctions, weakening the West’s ability to influence its actions. The US and its regional allies Japan and South Korea condemned the “deepening military cooperation” between Russia and North Korea and warned that it is “of grave concern to anyone with an interest in maintaining peace and stability” on the Korean Peninsula. There is also the risk of a trilateral partnership between Russia, North Korea, and China, all of which are ideologically opposed to the US security architecture.

Ukraine

Ukraine is the battleground on which Russia is using North Korean military aid. According to US intelligence, Russia began buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea for use in Ukraine as early as September 2022, though North Korea initially denied this. North Korean troops are also participating in efforts to push Ukrainians out of regions like Kursk in western Russia. Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine in October 2024, and Putin officially confirmed it in April 2025, publicly thanking Kim Jong-Un for fulfilling their June 2024 mutual defence treaty.

Military, Economic and Social Dimensions

Military

Mutual military support is at the core of the Russia-North Korea relationship. As of October 2024, Pyongyang has provided Russia with over 8 million artillery shells and missiles along with specific systems like KN-23 missiles, anti-tank systems, 170mm self-propelled howitzers, and 240mm MLRS. By April 2025, reports indicated that North Korea had sent Russia about 15,809 containers of ammunition and weapons and deployed about 15,000 troops to Ukraine. In return, Moscow has supplied North Korea with multiple types of advanced military hardware. Critically, Russia is potentially transferring highly sensitive technologies, including those related to space vehicles, reconnaissance satellites, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), nuclear-powered submarines, and even multiple warhead technologies. In March 2025, Kim Jong-Un announced the development of North Korea’s first “nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine.” This was likely only possible with Russia’s help, as Russian arms deals with North Korea are estimated at $5.52 billion.

Economic

Indicative of their deepening partnership, Russia-North Korea cooperation has expanded beyond the military sphere to the economic. North Korean labourers in Russia bring home hard cash. In March 2024, at least five North Korean tankers—three of which were UN-sanctioned—collected oil from Russia. US intelligence estimated that Russia sent 165,000 barrels of oil to North Korea in March 2024 alone. In April 2024, the Russian state-owned company RasonConTras restarted a joint coal project at Rason Port in North Korea after a four-year suspension. In April 2025, Russia and North Korea launched the construction of their first road bridge, connecting Rason in North Korea with Khason in Russia over the Tumen River. The project was agreed to in June 2024 and is expected to cost at least $111 million. Construction will take about 18 months. Upon its completion, it will expand passenger and commercial traffic, as well as tourism, between the two countries.

Still, limits exist. North Korea has few competitive goods for the Russian market. Joint infrastructure projects, like the Tumen River bridge, face challenges due to geographical limitations (a shallow river that is impassable for large ships) and possible opposition from China, whose access to the river, and through there the Sea of Japan, the Indo-Pacific and the Arctic, is restricted.

Social

On the societal level, Russia-North Korea ties extend from scientific exchanges to cultural ties and tourism. Russia and North Korea have signed agreements for academic exchanges (including schoolchildren) and joint research, notably including nuclear technology. In May 2024, a North

Korean scientific delegation visited Russian universities, scientific institutes, and Russia’s “Silicon Valley.” In November 2024, at the eleventh meeting of the DPRK-Russia Intergovernmental Committee for Cooperation in Trade, Economy, Science, and Technology in Pyongyang, officials agreed to increase the number of Russia-North Korea charter flights, expand routes beyond Russia’s far east, and open a joint Russian-language education centre in Pyongyang. In February 2024, a Russian tour group of 97 became the first tourists to enter North Korea since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. A second tour group travelled to North Korea the next month.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024.” Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/10575193/russia-north-korea-deal/

Opportunities and risks

Opportunities:

The growing Russia-North Korea relationship presents opportunities not only for Russia and North Korea, but also for the US and its allies.

Russia

A partnership with North Korea allows Russia to secure military aid vital to its war in Ukraine, gain leverage against the West in peace negotiations, and strengthen its challenge to the US-led global security architecture.

North Korea

Russian technological knowledge helps North Korea to rapidly modernize its military. North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine are gaining combat experience unprecedented in their country. Russia also offers North Korea economic relief, helps evade sanctions, and recognises it as a nuclear power

United States and allies

The deployment of North Korean troops in Ukraine offers the US and its allies an opportunity to observe North Korean military capabilities, training, and command structures. Captured North Korean soldiers may also be a source of information.

Risks:

The risks of the Russia-North Korea partnership are broad, potentially harming the US and its allies as well as Russia and North Korea themselves.

Heightened Regional Tensions and Military Escalation

The Russia-North Korea partnership, especially the June 2024 mutual defence treaty, significantly increases the risk of an arms race in Northeast Asia that could escalate into a military crisis, destabilising the Indo-Pacific region.

Advancement of North Korea's nuclear programme

The transfer of Russian technology to North Korea could increase its nuclear capabilities, even facilitating the development of nuclear-powered submarines. Such a submarine would drastically improve North Korea’s ability to cross the Pacific and attack the US mainland. This is so politically risky that Moscow would likely be extremely cautious in providing too much technological assistance to North Korea, but it nevertheless remains a risk.

Undermining of Non-proliferation Regime and Sanctions

Arms trade between Russia and North Korea weakens the non-proliferation regime and violates international sanctions. Russia also vetoed the UN watchdog body on North Korean non-proliferation. Such resistance to international pressure reveals a lack of effective Western enforcement mechanisms.

Prolonged Diplomatic Stalemate

Because North Korea receives money, fuel, food, sanctions relief, and de facto recognition as a nuclear power from Russia, Russia-North Korea cooperation reduces Pyongyang's incentive to engage in dialogue with the United States.

Damage to Russia-South Korea Ties

With North Korea fighting in Ukraine, South Korea will be more incentivized to provide military support to Ukraine, which it has so far avoided. The Russia-North Korea relationship also risks undermining decades of Russia-South Korea ties, including substantial trade and South Korean investment in Russia.

Uncertainty of Post-Ukraine War Dynamics

It is unclear to what extent Russia-North Korea relations will continue after the war in Ukraine ends, but they are unlikely to cease completely. Russia may choose to distance itself from North Korea when its demand for North Korean weapons decreases after the war. Once the West begins to lift sanctions on Russia, Moscow could prioritize restoring economic relations with the West and South Korea over its ties with North Korea. Moreover, Russia likely does not want to be too closely tied to North Korea’s roguishness, and does not want to upset its relations with China. From the North Korean perspective, a permanent alliance may not be desirable, as North Korea will seek to balance between Russia and China. Yet, even when the war is over, it is doubtful that Russia will stop seeking opportunities to counter Western power, and a partnership with North Korea would do just that. Non-military cooperation, such as academic exchange, tourism, and labour, will likely continue.

Policy Recommendations

Disrupt arms trade and technology transfers: The US and its allies should prioritize policies disrupting the flow of arms and sensitive military technologies between Russia and North Korea. The US, South Korea, Japan, and NATO countries can tighten arms trade restrictions and sanctions enforcement, prioritising sanctions specifically on transfers of high technology such as space and nuclear.
Strengthen deterrence capabilities: Given Russia and North Korea’s savviness at evading sanctions, the US and its allies should strengthen its deterrence capabilities. Because North Korea deters US military involvement in the Korean Peninsula through intimidation, the US should signal the steadfastness of its commitment to South Korean self-defence.
Coercive diplomacy: Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second presidency, the US and Russia have taken steps towards negotiating the end of the war in Ukraine. The US should leverage any future negotiations to persuade Moscow to cease military cooperation with North Korea.
Enhanced intelligence and information sharing: The US, South Korea, Japan, and NATO countries should increase their intelligence cooperation to track North Korea-Russia military activities, especially high technology transfers. They should also share information gathered from North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine to learn about North Korean military capabilities.
Strategic alliance building and diplomatic pressure: The US should urge its European allies at G7 and NATO conferences to apply economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea. The US could also formalize and deepen security ties with South Korea and Japan, and even Australia, such as through a collective defence declaration or increased quadrilateral cooperation.
Exploit rifts between Russia, North Korea, and China: China is concerned by the deepening ties between Russia and North Korea, particularly regarding nuclear and missile technologies that could lead to regional escalation. The US and its allies should use this fear to persuade China to push North Korea away from Russia. Similarly, Russia likely will not want to alienate China for the sake of North Korea, a weakness in the Russia-North Korea relationship which the US and its allies could highlight and exploit. For instance, they could launch an information campaign that highlights the differences between Russia, North Korea, and China and sow distrust among them.

Conclusion

The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea, significantly fuelled by the war in Ukraine, has far-reaching implications for global security. This alliance has allowed North Korea to accelerate its military modernization, including its nuclear and missile programmes, while providing Russia with much-needed military supplies and troops for its war in Ukraine, which has been dragging on for over three years. The relationship undermines international non-proliferation efforts and the global sanctions regime, escalates tensions in Northeast Asia, and, in the worst case scenario, poses a threat to the continental United States. While the future trajectory of this partnership remains subject to the outcome of the Ukraine war and Moscow’s strategic reconsiderations, the West must increase its vigilance and coordination. Proactive measures to disrupt arms and technology transfers, strengthen sanctions, boost deterrence, and foster diplomatic unity among allies are essential to safeguard regional and global stability.

The Strategic Expansion of Russia-North Korea Relations and its Security Implications