Poland’s Post Election Foreign Policy: Examining the implications of Nawrocki’s win for Ukraine, Russia and the West
June 22, 2025 - Written by Vira Veselukha
Karol Nawrocki’s narrow presidential victory in June 2025 marks a pivotal moment for Poland’s foreign policy. Backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki campaigned as a defender of Polish sovereignty and traditional values, in contrast to his pro-European
predecessor Duda’s approach. With war raging next door in Ukraine and complex relations with both Eastern neighbours and Western allies, Poland’s foreign policy under Nawrocki is expected to blend continuity in core security commitments with shifts in tone and emphasis.
Foreign Policy Outlook: Andrzej Duda vs. Karol Nawrocki
To evaluate and understand the magnitude of change, the table below compares key foreign policy stances of President Elect Karol Nawrocki with those of former President Andrzej Duda. Duda, who served from 2015 to 2025, was broadly aligned with Nawrocki’s PiS party on security issues but differed in style and some policy nuances.
As the comparison shows, core strategic orientations, especially Poland’s commitment to NATO and resistance to Russian aggression, will remain consistent under Nawrocki. Poland will continue to be a leading NATO ally on the eastern flank and a staunch opponent of Kremlin revisionism, just as under Duda. However, important shifts in tone and approach are expected in relations with Ukraine and the EU, and in the style of transatlantic engagement.
Key Players
Ukraine: Nawrocki maintains Poland's strategic alliance with Ukraine against Russian aggression but introduces stricter conditionality. Nawrocki confirmed that he does not currently support Ukraine’s NATO accession and EU membership, reflecting caution in extending security guarantees during active conflict. While military support continues, Nawrocki links aid to domestic interests. He opposes Ukrainian agricultural imports disrupting Polish markets and redirects budget focus from refugee support to defense modernisation and infrastructure. These policies signal broader divestments from social spending toward security priorities. Indeed, the mood in Poland has soured somewhat regarding the refugee influx, with many Ukrainians reporting abuse and bullying. Nawrocki tapped into this by promising to prioritise “Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine”. Therefore, it is likely that Poland will be pressing Ukraine for tighter coordination on issues like grain exports or more acknowledgement of World War II era massacres of Poles, which remain a sensitive historical grievance and a thorn in their relationship. Environmental issues play a secondary role, disputes over trade, like grain exports, may raise questions about environmental standards, but these remain peripheral to core political and economic priorities.
Russia: Poland’s geopolitical posture in Eastern Europe under Nawrocki will hew closely to the course set in recent years, with a staunchly anti-Russian, pro-regional-security stance. Continued decoupling from Russian trade and energy is expected. The defense budget remains a priority, with no plans for economic re-engagement with Russia. Spending shifts will further highlight divestments from domestic programs in favor of security. Nawrocki’s policies align with public sentiment shaped by historical grievances against Russia. His stance reinforces a collective identity centered on resilience and national sovereignty. Furthermore, Nawrocki champions legal accountability for Russian war crimes and backs international tribunals. Domestic law is also shaped to counter Russian propaganda and influence.
NATO & US: Here Poland’s course remains one of deep continuity and even reinforcement. Nawrocki and his political base are ardently Atlanticist, believing Poland’s security depends on a robust NATO anchored by U.S. power. Nawrocki’s victory came with explicit endorsement from prominent U.S. Republicans; he was the only candidate to meet President Donald Trump in the White House during the campaign. This unprecedented intervention by a U.S. administration into a Polish election means Nawrocki starts his term with exceptionally warm ties to Washington.
Poland under Nawrocki will continue hosting U.S. forces and likely push for even more NATO resources and infrastructure on its soil. Nawrocki is fully committed to Poland’s ambitious military modernisation, Warsaw is already spending 4.2% of GDP on defence and projected to rise to 4.7%, the highest of all NATO allies, and Nawrocki will expect recognition and reciprocity from NATO. There is every indication Poland will remain out front in implementing NATO deterrence measures, such as the upcoming plans for heavier forward deployments and high-readiness units on the eastern flank.
European Union (EU): Poland’s relationship with the EU is entering a fraught phase under President Nawrocki. The election outcome dealt a blow to the centrist, pro-EU Tusk government’s hopes of swiftly repairing ties with Brussels. Duda’s presidency already saw unprecedented EU measures: lawsuits, funding freezes, and plans to link EU budget payments to rule-of-law compliance. Nawrocki has made clear he views the post-2023 government’s attempts to roll back PiS’s changes as against the voters’ mandate. Like Duda, Nawrocki is virtually certain to veto any legislation that he believes dilutes Polish sovereignty or PiS’s institutional reforms. Key EU funds for Poland will likely stay blocked as long as judicial disputes fester. Nawrocki does not seem inclined to compromise; instead, he frames EU pressure as an assault on Poland’s dignity. In a post-victory message, he asserted he will not yield on “issues that are important to Poland and Poles”. He has openly criticised Brussels’ “interference” in Polish affairs and echoed PiS talking points that the European Commission was favouring the Polish opposition. Nawrocki is likely to oppose EU environmental regulations perceived as harmful to national industries. Energy policy will favour sovereignty and affordability over EU climate targets, with environmental spending subordinated to economic self-sufficiency.
Recommendation for key stakeholders:
Ukraine: Reassure and resolve bilateral frictions. For Kyiv, Poland’s support remains indispensable, but Nawrocki’s presidency means diplomacy needs a personal reset at the highest level. President Zelenskyy moved swiftly to congratulate Nawrocki, reflecting Ukraine’s understanding of Poland’s importance. Building a good rapport between Zelenskyy and Nawrocki is crucial. Ukraine should proactively acknowledge Poland’s contributions and concerns. On contentious issues like the World War II-era Volhynia tragedy or recent trade spats over grain, Ukraine can signal willingness to engage in honest historical dialogue and practical solutions. Such gestures would deprive Nawrocki of domestic arguments that Ukraine ignores Polish interests. It’s also wise for Ukraine to diversify its channels: continue working closely with the Polish government while diplomatically involving Nawrocki in high-profile initiatives. By giving Nawrocki a platform to stand side-by-side with Ukraine’s leadership in a way that highlights Poland’s leadership role, Ukraine can channel Nawrocki’s nationalist pride towards defending Ukraine, not griping about it.
Finally, Ukraine, together with other allies, should emphasise that Nawrocki’s core security goals align with Ukraine’s, both want to stop Russian aggression. Keeping that shared strategic purpose front and centre will help ensure that any tactical disagreements do not derail the fundamentally strong Poland-Ukraine partnership. In conclusion, Poland’s foreign policy under President Nawrocki will require careful navigation by all parties. The international community should approach Warsaw’s new dual leadership with nuance: recognising Poland’s enduring strategic value and commitments, while constructively addressing the new challenges posed by Nawrocki’s nationalist-driven approach. With open communication, respect for Polish sovereignty, and a focus on mutual interests, stakeholders can maintain strong cooperation with Poland and keep it firmly anchored in the Western alliance during this transitional period. The stakes, from Ukraine’s fate to European unity, are too high to do otherwise.
European Union (EU): Engage but uphold principles. Brussels and EU leaders should approach the Nawrocki administration with a mix of firmness and pragmatism. It’s important to keep dialogue open. At the same time, the EU should maintain a united front on core democratic values. Offering technical support to Poland’s government on rule-of-law reforms could help bypass rhetoric and address issues objectively. Avoiding overly punitive or harsh rhetoric in return will deny Nawrocki the narrative of a “bullying Brussels.” Instead, emphasis on common interests will be key: Poland’s economic growth and security benefit from EU cooperation. The EU may also leverage Poland’s strong interest in continental security to encourage constructive behavior.
NATO and the United States: Reaffirm commitments and utilise Poland’s strengths. NATO should capitalize on Poland’s unwavering commitment to collective defense. With Nawrocki keen to keep U.S. troops in Poland and increase military cooperation, NATO can proceed confidently with plans to bolster its Eastern flank. Allies like the U.S. might conduct high-profile joint exercises or base openings in Poland to signal unity. At the same time, NATO should quietly prepare contingency plans for any potential political turbulence. Close coordination with Prime Minister Tusk’s government will be key, since operationally the government controls the defence ministry and deployments. The U.S. in particular, which enjoys special influence in Warsaw, can play a moderating role: President Nawrocki is positioned as a “positive interlocutor” to the U.S., so Washington can gently encourage him to maintain a constructive approach within NATO. Reaffirming NATO’s open-door policy carefully is one example; while Nawrocki opposes Ukraine’s immediate NATO entry, NATO and U.S. officials could work with him on alternative security assurances for Ukraine that address his concerns. NATO should also highlight Poland’s exemplary defence spending and capabilities as a success story, reinforcing to Nawrocki that he gains more international clout by being at the NATO table as a team player rather than a solo actor.
Conclusion
Under President Karol Nawrocki, Poland will remain a critical player straddling East and West, a frontline NATO pillar against Russian aggression, yet also a source of friction within the European institutions. Key foreign policy directions will largely continue: Poland’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense, to regional security, and to the NATO alliance will not waver. Nawrocki’s close alignment with Washington’s current leadership could strengthen transatlantic security ties in the near term. However, the magnitude of change lies in the nuances, a more nationalist, Poland-first lens on foreign policy issues. Compared to his predecessor, Nawrocki is expected to be more assertive toward allies and neighbors whenever Polish interests are at stake, whether that means sparring with Brussels over sovereignty, pressing Kyiv on historical disputes, or championing a conservative vision on the world stage. The result could be a Poland that is both more influential in some arenas and more isolated in others. One overarching concern is the impact of domestic polarisation on foreign policy coherence. Poland is entering a period of cohabitation: a nationalist president and a pro-EU government sharing power. Allies will need to navigate this carefully, engaging with both Polish centers of power. Despite these challenges, Poland’s fundamental strategic orientation as a Western-aligned, security-conscious nation is unchanged. Nawrocki’s Poland will still value NATO’s Article 5 guarantee above all and seek to deter adversaries. The coming years of his presidency will test Nawrocki’s statecraft in balancing his domestic mandate with the responsibilities of statesmanship on the European and global stage.