Reports and analysis from analysts embedded across the regions, covering security, politics and risk across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia.
Research desks
Türkiye
28 June 2025
Turkey’s Response to Israel-Iran War?
Türkiye has adopted diplomacy to call for de-escalation and regional dialogue. However, behind the scenes, Ankara is leveraging the crisis to advance its long-standing ambition of regional power projection, delicately balancing ideological support for Palestine with strategic distrust of Tehran. 13 June 2025 marks a seismic escalation between Israel and Iran. Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” significantly weakened Iranian power in the Middle East.
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Europe
26 June 2025
The Strategic Expansion of Russia-North Korea Relations and its Security Implications
On 5 June 2025, Kim Jong-Un vowed to “unconditionally” support Russia in its war against Ukraine. This declaration exemplifies the growing Russia-North Korea relationship since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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LATAM & Caribbean
19 June 2025
The government of Nayib Bukele has garnered significant media attention in recent years. Bukele, who once branded himself the ‘world’s coolest dictator’, has enacted various mass incarceration programmes that have drastically reduced violent crime in El Salvador, a country that had the highest homicide rate in the world as recently as 2015. The re-election of U.S. President Donald J. Trump has profoundly destabilised the post-Cold War international order. Symptoms of this destabilisation include the evolving alignment of the U.S. and Russia, the increasingly fractious relationship between the U.S.
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Middle East & North Africa
5 June 2025
Navigating Security Dilemmas in US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations
Over the past two decades, Iran’s nuclear programme has been a persistent source of concern for the West. While diplomatic efforts led to the establishment of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, shifting geopolitical dynamics have since escalated tensions, turning cautious engagement into overt hostility and placing national security on heightened alert.
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North America
3 June 2025
The United States Lifts Sanctions on Syria After Almost Five Decades
A couple of weeks ago, President Donald Trump announced plans to lift nearly five decades of sanctions on Syria. This development, first unveiled at a U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum on 12 May 2025, alongside Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, represents a substantial departure from established U.S.
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Africa
25 May 2025
US-Kenya Security Pact and Counterterrorism in East Africa and its wider Geopolitical Implications
The US-Kenya security pact highlights the growing shift in global power dynamics, where smaller regional players, like Kenya, are being increasingly integrated into the security policies of larger powers. However, this brings to fore several questions about the long-term viability of such partnerships. In a world where global powers are becoming more unpredictable and the nature of conflict is increasingly non-traditional, the US-Kenya pact may serve as a useful model for flexible, regional security alliances.
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Europe
21 May 2025
A Potential NATO Article V Loophole: How Russia Could Exploit Åland’s Demilitarisation
Nestled between Sweden and Finland lies the Swedish-speaking archipelago of Åland, an autonomous province of Finland that has seen its fair share of Swedish, Russian, German, and Finnish control. While often overlooked or forgotten, the Åland Islands hold strategic value in the Baltic Sea’s geography.
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Middle East & North Africa
15 May 2025
Lebanon at a Crossroads: Prospects of US and Gulf Investment Following a Weakened Hezbollah
Lebanon is at a crossroads in its history. In the wake of a weakened Hezbollah, following Assad’s ouster in Syria and its war with Israel, which have left Hezbollah’s social welfare, financial, and military operations...
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Security & Conflict
14 May 2025
The United Kingdom is entering a new chapter in its defence strategy, marked by an increasing reliance on autonomous weapons and AI-driven systems. This shift reflects wider trends in modern warfare, where traditional military strategies are becoming secondary to technological innovation.
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